There is at least a 50% chance that the President sweeps Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania, and potentially win Minnesota. With those states lost, Biden’s path to victory would not exist.
Many lingering arguments are coming to a tipping point, in society, the economy, and our health. 2020 has laid bare the failures of our public sector to resolve these arguments. We live an in era of private sector confidence, and that is where real change will come from.
Many are regretting not preparing for the disruptions they are now facing. What should you prepare for next? How about beating this thing. Some predictions:…
America has woken up. We are beginning to win the early battles against COVID-19. There is reason to be optimistic.
The New COVID-19 Base Case is Shutdown, Suppression, Hammer & Dance
The 2020 COVID-19 battle confirms that most global risk emanates from miscalculated, misguided, and increasingly autocratic actions of the world’s political class. The American people…
Entering year 4 of a 15-year private sector confidence cycle, expect a mixed bag for risk-on asset classes in a world weighed down by the…
The interplay of public and private sector confidence continues to drive major political and market events
After falling as much as 35% from late October levels, Bitcoin is likely on the cusp of a dramatic move of + or – 50%. There is significant price memory around 6,500 range, and a break of that should take the market to 2018 lows around 3,000. A robust hold at that price level could result in a 10,000 price print.
Critical slowing down in the S&P 500 suggest a transition, markets have waved off event risk, and prices have moved decisively higher.
Conventional wisdom and polling are that Democrats can regain the Rust Belt firewall in 2020. My random forest model predicts that Michigan’s 2020 turnout will be lower than in 2016. The path to flipping Michigan blue will be much harder than it seems.
Recession fears are everywhere. These fears are likely overblown. Consumer economic data remains robust and the Fed has cut rates twice as manufacturing has softened. US stocks have posted robust gains. And the 3 month/10 year spread in Treasuries has uninverted.
NLP analysis of available FOMC communications suggests a much lower likelihood of a rate cut than markets expect. Economic data also implies that a data-driven FOMC would hold rates steady. Be prepared for a surprise on Wednesday.
With Congress providing tacit support, the public behind them, a stock market near all-time highs, and steady approval ratings expect the President to remain tough on China.
Using deep learning to analyze a wide swath of economic data suggests that optimism should be in the cards, not a recession.
Markets are catching up to the staying power of the trade war. Let’s use NLP to analyze the President’s Tweets on trade.
TL;DR on Fed Rate Cuts The Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) announces its rate decision on Wednesday. A robust review of economic data does…