Critical slowing down in the S&P 500 suggest a transition, markets have waved off event risk, and prices have moved decisively higher.
Conventional wisdom and polling are that Democrats can regain the Rust Belt firewall in 2020. My random forest model predicts that Michigan’s 2020 turnout will be lower than in 2016. The path to flipping Michigan blue will be much harder than it seems.
Recession fears are everywhere. These fears are likely overblown. Consumer economic data remains robust and the Fed has cut rates twice as manufacturing has softened. US stocks have posted robust gains. And the 3 month/10 year spread in Treasuries has uninverted.
NLP analysis of available FOMC communications suggests a much lower likelihood of a rate cut than markets expect. Economic data also implies that a data-driven FOMC would hold rates steady. Be prepared for a surprise on Wednesday.
With Congress providing tacit support, the public behind them, a stock market near all-time highs, and steady approval ratings expect the President to remain tough on China.
Using deep learning to analyze a wide swath of economic data suggests that optimism should be in the cards, not a recession.
Markets are catching up to the staying power of the trade war. Let’s use NLP to analyze the President’s Tweets on trade.
TL;DR on Fed Rate Cuts The Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) announces its rate decision on Wednesday. A robust…
Deciphering FedSpeak1, the words and intentions of the Federal Reserve, has become a full-time job in financial markets and media.…
Stan Druckenmiller’s Economic Club Speech – Part 1 The statement “often wrong, never in doubt” from famed investor Stanley Druckenmiller…